International norms and fried eggs: David Harland on the new realities of stopping wars - © Geneva solutions

By Kasmira Jefford – Geneva Solutions

New forms of diplomacy are emerging to respond to a world where the rules-based system of the last 80 years, enshrined in the UN charter, is crumbling, says the director of the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue.

David Harland begins his speech to business leaders at an early morning conference of the Swiss-British Chamber of Commerce in Geneva with a disclaimer. “The best part of this breakfast is almost certainly going to be the breakfast. I can’t promise you anything very uplifting,” he says apologetically.

The comment earns the director of the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (HD), a world-leading conflict mediation organisation, a round of laughter. But his core message is more sobering: The rules-based system established by the victors of the Second World War is being washed away; violence and conflict, unshackled from any restraining framework, are rising, with the highest number of battle-related deaths recorded last year since 2016 (at least 1,000); and the prospect of international norms that presided over “the greatest acceleration of human good in history” being restored are as fried as the eggs on his audience’s plates. Bon appétit.

“We are doomed to live with this crumbling 1945 order until there is a true crisis in the system, and a new set of winners resets the rules,” says Harland.

Until then, the world’s growing roster of populist leaders is more interested in throwing their copy of the United Nations Charter out the window – or at least making a political show of it. “Whether it is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or Trump’s threats against Canada or Greenland, or China saying that the military should be ready to take Taiwan by force by 2027, the taboos and norms that kept the risk of armed conflict at manageable levels are gone,” he says.

Harland’s heavy dose of realism is hardly surprising. HD’s 300-strong team of negotiators, involved at one time or another in mediation efforts in more than half of the world’s 61 conflicts, has witnessed first hand the rise in violence and its impact on civilians – particularly in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan and Myanmar, where Harland was flying to just hours after the event as the country veers towards its first elections since the military junta seized power four years ago, triggering a civil war.

But as an expert mediator and former UN peacekeeper, including in Bosnia, Kosovo and Haiti, he remains hopeful of solutions that diplomacy can bring, even if the profession is suffering its own bout of structural decline.

“The political cost of compromise is going up,” the New Zealander concedes. Where adversaries once understood that they had to bring something to the table to receive an olive branch in return, parties are turning up empty-handed.

“Diplomacy as it was originally conceived, as a quiet mechanism for communicating and finding common ground, even with adversaries, is almost dead. When someone says or does something we don’t like, the first reflex now is to stop talking to them. It’s crazy,” he says. Technology, social media and politics are all contributing factors, evolving in ways that “reward positions of no compromise”, he adds.

But while traditional diplomacy may have lost its edge, new forms are taking shape involving a wider array of actors, and “quiet interest-based transactions” that nevertheless give him a glimmer of hope. The Black Sea grain deal, in which HD played a discreet but instrumental role, is a case in point. The Ukraine-Russia agreement, brokered by the UN and Turkey, with the support of the African Union, also counted on the clout of private sector players, including Lloyd’s of London, which arranged the insurance facility.  While Russia ultimately withdrew in July 2023, it nevertheless allowed for the export of over 33 million metric tonnes of food from Ukrainian ports in the year the agreement was in place.

“What the Black Sea grain deal showed is that if you construct an arrangement where the parties can see a higher interest, there are possible solutions, at least partial or short-term ones,” Harland says.

The private sector, for better or for worse, will play a growing role in conflict resolution. Even US tech billionaire Elon Musk has a peace plan for Ukraine. “You might not like it, but there is a plan out there,” he adds. Other actors are also stepping up to the task, including faith-based groups like the Roman Catholic Community of Saint Egidio, which Harland praises for its peacemaking activities in Central America and Mozambique.

Does the rise of impunity and disregard for international rules make it harder for mediators like HD to get conflicting parties to talk to each other? “In some ways, it’s the opposite. There are fewer constraints on what type of deal you can make now, some of used to be blocked for normative reasons,” he tells Geneva Solutions in an interview after the event. “The bad news is there is more violence, and deals tend to be short-term.”

Amnesties are back in play in reconciliation efforts, even where human rights norms should forbid them. “We’re also seeing very economically motivated transactions that are really getting parties to engage, from Congo to Thailand.”

Cue US president Donald Trump, who Harland admits has brought a crude economic transactionalism onto the table “that is not entirely negative” after having shaken loose many peace processes that have been intractable for years or even decades. He points to Trump’s 20-point Gaza peace plan, or the US deal brokered between the Democratic Republic of Congo and neighbouring Rwanda that would give the US access to critical minerals. He cautions, however, that these quick fixes don’t address the underlying causes, only manage them – for now. A shaky truce agreed between Thailand and Cambodia in October in Trump’s presence was last week at risk of unravelling after fresh clashes along their contested border.

Looking forward, it’s unclear where the world is heading. Harland says the Geneva-based organisation, which he has led since 2011, will continue to play its small part in “quietly trying to identify with interlocutors what are the areas of mutual interest”, in conflict settings from Ukraine to Sudan. In recent years, it has racked up successes, including its involvement in Libya’s ceasefire in 2020 and the peace treaty between Ethiopia and Tigray in 2022.

True to its nature of shying away from public attention, Harland declines to comment on HD’s involvement in mediation efforts in the Russia-Ukraine war but confirms it “continues to play a role in connecting parties”. Does he see a Russia-Ukraine peace deal in the near future? “I’m not very optimistic right now. Both countries have reasons to continue, but there are now pain points for both sides that may make them open to talks in the coming months”.